Cepea, July 2 2019 – The average of wheat prices in the first semester of 2019 is higher than in the same period last year. In nominal terms, average quotes from the period of January to June in states surveyed are the highest of Cepea series, which started in 2004. This scenario reinforces players’ expectations that, in 2019, the wheat market is based more in sustaining aspects than in pressure factors.
This trend is related to the low supply of high-quality grains, the off-season period in Brazil and exports. Both shipments and imports in 2019 are high. Therefore, from January to June this year, the average price in São Paulo was 926.55 BRL per ton, in Paraná, 881.47 BRL/ton, in Santa Catarina, 934.31 BRL/ton and, in Rio Grande do Sul, 802.14 BRL/ton, 7.4%, 9.8%, 14.7% and 14.2%, respectively, higher than those observed in the first semester of 2018.
Monthly (from May 31 to June 28), prices upped 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) of Rio Grande do Sul, but decreased 0.3% in Paraná. In the wholesale market, values moved down 1.4% in Paraná and 1% in Rio Grande do Sul, but rose 0.1% in São Paulo.
At the field, Deral/Seab indicates that, in Paraná, the wheat planting had reached 91% of the area until June 24, and 95% of the total are at good conditions. In Rio Grande do Sul, planting activities totaled 73% of the area and 97% of it are germinating. In general, the weather has favored crops.
Price rises for wheat and the fast pace of corn harvest, in turn, have led wheat producers in Brazil and Argentina to increase the area of the winter product.
In Argentina, the area may total 6.6 million hectares, against 6.4 million hectares forecast initially, according to Bolsa de Cereales. In spite of good expectations about the product this season, prices increased, due to the possibility of new frosts.