Bases point to reduction of area

In September, growers start to plant grains in Brazil. It is time to decide how many hectares will be cultivated with soybean and corn. Bases point advantage to the soybean. The main aspect is linked to the currently corn prices, which are similar to the values practiced at the end of August 2007. For soybean, in turn, quotations are 30 percent higher comparing the same periods.

Between July 31st and August 29th, the ESALQ/BM&F Index for corn (Campinas region of Sao Paulo state) decreased 4.44 percent in Real, closing at 24.53 reals or 15.02 dollars per bag of 60 kilos. In general terms, few volumes were traded during the month. Growers kept retreated, betting on higher prices. Buyers, in turn, were not willing to purchase, once they have already settled anticipated contracts.

According to Paraná governmente (Seab), only 10 percent of the winter corn crop production was commercialized until the end of August. Paraná state is the main national producer, representing 26 percent of the total. The winter crop harvest starts in May, lasting until the end of August.

Concerning corn exports, it is not probably that Brazil will enlarge trades significantly. This year, Europe reduced its imports, since they expected good corn and wheat crops. China and South Korea also restricted their trades. Iran, which from January to July 2007 imported 2.4 million tons, did not purchase any volume from Brazil in the same period 2008. The North-American production, in turn, should be the second highest. Moreover, the Real appreciation against the dollar presses domestic quotations down. (Cepea - Brazil)


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