Concerned about the weather and aware of price oscillations, sellers leave the Brazilian market

Cepea, September 16, 2020 – As a high volume of arabica coffee has already been sold, Brazilian agents – who are concerned about the weather – have been away from the market, reducing liquidity in Brazil. Besides, quotes are oscillating in both the international and the domestic markets, keeping sellers disinterested in new deals.


The harvesting has ended in all Brazilian regions surveyed by Cepea, and some sporadic flowerings have been spotted in arabica crops, which is concerning agents, since the hot and dry weather may damage crops. With the stress after the harvesting, rains are crucial for the physiological recovery of crops, flower induction and settlement of the flowers already open. Climatempo (weather forecast agency) forecasts rains for south-eastern Brazil from next Sunday, 20, onwards.


On the other hand, agents consulted by Cepea claim that many purchasers have little room for the new coffee in warehouses, while others are receiving the product purchased in previous months, which is limiting new deals. Some of the agents have reported difficulties to find trucks available for transport.


As for prices, on September 15, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee (delivered to São Paulo city) closed at 561.54 BRL (106.23 USD) per 60-kilo bag, a steep 8% down compared to that on August 31. Pressure came from international devaluations and the dollar depreciation against Real.


ROBUSTA – In the market of robusta coffee, purchasers and sellers have also been away from the market. Many farmers are concerned about the dry weather, primarily in Espírito Santo, where most flowering has occurred. Flower drops have not been reported yet, but if does not rain in the coming days, the development of the 2021/22 crop may be hampered.


In Rondônia, the dry weather is affecting coffee trees too. However, as flowering has not occurred in a large area, farmers are not as concerned. Purchasers have reported little room in warehouses too, which hampered new robusta purchases in the second week of the month.


In the first fortnight of September, robusta prices dropped, due to the decreases in the future contracts for this variety and the dollar depreciation. On Sept. 15, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the robusta type 6, screen 13, Espírito Santo State, closed at 385.33 BRL (72.90 USD) per 60-kilo bag, 5.4% lower than that on August 31.


EXPORTS – Brazilian coffee exports increased in August, according to data from Cecafé (Coffee Exporters Council). Last month, Brazil exported 3.2 million bags of coffee (green, soluble and roasted coffee), 2% more than that from July. As for green coffee (arabica and robusta), the volumes shipped are 4% higher, totaling 2.9% million bags.




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