Despite the harvesting, prices rise in BR in the first fortnight of March

Cepea, March 18, 2020 – As the weather is favorable to soybean crops in all producing regions in Brazil, the harvesting is ending in some of them. According to agents consulted by Cepea, the average productivity of crops is high. Still, prices continue on the rise, boosted by the US dollar appreciation against Real and the firm international demand.


In Goiás (GO), activities are ending – around 80% of the state area has been harvested, according to Cepea surveys. In Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), activities have surpassed 70%, and in São Paulo (SP), 60%. The farmers from SP – who feared quality could decrease early in the crop – have reported that productivity has surpassed 70 bags per hectare.


In Minas Gerais State (MG), farmers claim that activities have been interrupted by the high rains from February, however, productivity is higher than expectations. According to data from Cepea, 50% of the state area has been harvested in MG. In MS, the harvesting pace is fast, and activities have reached around 80% of the soybean area.


In Mato Grosso, however, the agents consulted by Cepea have reported that only a few farmers have not finished activities yet, and many of them have confirmed a record production. Data from Imea show that, until March 6, 91.47% of the soybean area had been harvested in that state. According to data from Imea, 75.48% of the 2019/20 crop had been traded until March 9 – against 61.29% in the same period last season. Of the 2020/21 crop, 20.27% have been marketed, much more than the 2.45% traded in the same period last year.


In Paraná, 68% of the soybean area had been harvested until March 9, according to data from Deral/Seab. In Bahia and in Maranhão States, activities are starting to advance, since the weather is currently favorable.


On the other hand, in Rio Grande do Sul and in Santa Catarina, crops productivity is below the expected for the beginning of the season, since unfavorable weather hampered beans development. The agents consulted by Cepea have reported that around 30% of the soybean area has been harvested in both states.


As regards prices, between February 28 and March 13, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index in Paranaguá and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index in Paraná increased 2.6% and 3.6%, respectively, to 92.18 BRL per 60-kilo bag (19.00 USD/bag) and to 85.89 BRL/bag (17.70 USD/bag) on March 13.


On March 13, the US dollar closed at 4.852 BRL, a staggering 8% up in the fortnight and a nominal record. This scenario continues to favor Brazilian exports. Thus, the amount of soybean loads at Brazilian ports to be exported until May is very high, and only a few trading companies have been marketing batches for delivery in April and in May. For the 2020/21 crop, the trading pace is fast too, mainly for delivery between March and May 2021.


INTERNATIONAL – A report from the USDA released on March 9 revised up the production estimates for soybean in Brazil to 126 million tons, a global record. Exports were revised up too, estimated at 77 million tons.




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