Cepea, October 1 2019 – As the harvesting of the 2019 wheat crop steps up in Paraná (PR) State, the effects of the unfavorable weather conditions during crops development become more evident – the planted area, productivity and production decreased compared to that in the previous year-crop. Still, supply is increasing in the Brazilian market, pressing down quotes in PR, which, in turn, have been lower this year (in nominal terms).
In September (until Sept. 27), the average wheat price in PR was 863.34 BRL per ton, 2.55% down compared to that in August and the lowest since December 2018, in nominal terms.
In Rio Grande do Sul (RS), the average price in September, at 851.63 BRL per ton, is 3.1% higher than that from August and the highest since Sept/18. In RS, most deals are related to the remaining wheat from the 2018/19 crop, and the 2019/20 harvesting should start in mid-October. In light of that, in late September, quotes in Paraná were lower than in Rio Grande do Sul. Between September 20 and 27, the price gap was at 7.86 Reais per ton. It is worth to mention that values in RS are usually lower than in PR.
Data from Deral/Seab indicate a 7.2% reduction in the production area, to 1.02 million hectares in 2019. Productivity is also forecast to decrease, by 5.4%, to 2.4 thousand tons per hectare. In light of that, supply should decrease a steep 15.9%, to 2.36 million tons.
Until September 23, 60% of the crops from PR had been harvested, according to Deral/Seab. Of the crops still in the field, 54% were in good conditions, 36%, in average conditions, and 10%, in bad conditions. As for the trading pace, 25% of the total has been marketed. In Rio Grande do Sul, crops have been developing well, according to Emater.