Due to low inventories and high dollar quotes, prices move up again

Cepea, July 16, 2021 – Prices of soybean and byproducts moved up in Brazil in the beginning of July. Low domestic inventories and dollar valuation pushed up quotes. As a result, sellers were more active in the domestic market, increasing liquidity.

 

Between June 30 and July 15, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) rose by 6.82%, closing at 168.9 BRL (32.96 USD)/bag on July 15. In the same period, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná increased 6.66%, to 163.60 BRL (31.92 USD)/bag. The US dollar upped 3.06% in the same period, closing at 5.125 BRL on July 15.

 

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to soybean farmers (over-the-counter market) in Brazil rose by 2.9% from July 1-8; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotes increased 2.6%. The US dollar upped 4.1% in the same period, closing at 5.254 BRL on July 8.

 

Imea says that 88.29% of the 2020/21 crop in Mato Grosso has been traded. In Paraná, according to Deral/Seab, 76.5% of the 2020/21 production has been traded.

 

ESTIMATES – Conab released a report on July 8 showing that the 2020/21 area upped 4.2% compared to the previous, totaling 38.5 million hectares. The increase was encouraged by international price rises and high dollar quotes in 2020. Productivity rose 4.5%, despite weather problems. Therefore, production hit a new record, at 135.9 million tons, 8.9% more in relation to the season before.

 

The domestic demand is projected at 49.95 million tons, downing circa 29 thousand tons compared to the report released in June. The decrease is attributed to a reduction in the soybean oil consumption.

 

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS – Brazilian soybean exports dropped 12.7% from May to June, totaling 11.119 million tons, according to data from Secex. The volume is also lower compared to that in June last year, 12.742 million tons. Imports totaled 151 thousand tons in June, against 89 thousand tons in the same period of 2020 – Secex data.

 

(Cepea-Brazil)

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