Firm demand keeps Index on the rise in the Brazilian market

Cepea, November 19, 2019 – Corn prices increased in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of November, influenced by the firm demand in the national spot market. Many purchasers, mainly those from typical consuming regions, reported difficulties to find new corn batches. Sellers, in turn, were postponing deals, expecting prices to rise more in the coming weeks – based on the fast exports pace.

 

According to Secex, Brazilian corn exports totaled 6.14 million tons in October, only 5.6% below the amount shipped in September. From January to October, exports totaled 34 million tons, 130% more than that from the same period last year. At ports, quotes were rising too, but not as sharply. It is worth to mention that prices have been more attractive in the remaining regions of the country than at ports (for exports).

 

On Nov. 14, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) closed at 44.09 BRL (10.52 USD) per 60-kilo bag, 5% higher than that on Oct. 31. At Paranaguá (PR) and Santos (SP) ports, prices increased less. At B3, prices rose too, reflecting concerns about supply in early 2020.

 

CONAB – Data released by Conab (National Company for Food Supply) on Nov. 13 estimate Brazilian corn exports to reach 39 million tons in the 2018/19 season, a million tons higher than that forecast in October.

 

As regards the first 2019/20 crop, Conab estimates the area to be sown with corn to total 4.14 million hectares, 0.9% up compared to that in 2018. Production is estimated at 26.3 million tons, 2.4% higher than that in the previous crop.

 

The second crop corn is estimated to total 70.9 million tons, 3.1% lower than the previous. Thus, the total output in the 2019/20 season is forecast at 98.36 million tons. It is worth to consider that the USDA predicts the Brazilian output to total 101 million tons in 2019/20, the same as in the 2018/19 crop.

 

In the field, data from Seab/Deral indicate that, until Nov. 11, the area sown with corn in the first 2019/20 crop had reached 99%. Of the crops in the field, 9% were in average conditions, 90%, in good conditions, and only 1% in bad conditions.

 

(Cepea-Brazil)

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