Cepea, September 17th, 2021 – The harvesting of the new wheat crop has begun in Brazil with optimistic farmers. Expectations point to record productivity in the two major wheat-producing states in the country: Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. In Paraná, yield is expected to be higher than that in 2020, but not a record. Prices were high in the first fortnight of September, underpinned by the also high import parity.
Data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) show that, until September 4th, 3.8% of the wheat crop had been harvested in the country. Considering state activities, 82.9% of wheat crops have been harvested in Goiás, 63% in Minas Gerais, and 10% in São Paulo. Meanwhile, purchasers are waiting for higher volumes of the new crop to arrive at the market, expecting prices to drop.
ESTIMATES – Data released by Conab in early September revised down production estimates compared to that reported in August, due to the frosts in late July and the dry weather in Brazil. However, figures are still records. According to Conab, the Brazilian area with wheat crops is estimated at 2.69 million hectares, 14.9% higher than that last season. Productivity is forecast at 3.03 tons per hectare, 13.8% up from that in 2020. Thus, the output may total 8.156 million tons, a staggering 30.8% up from that in the previous crop and a record.
The domestic availability of wheat (initial inventories + output + imports) is estimated at 14.303 million tons, 11.14% higher than that in the previous season and the highest since 2016. As regards demand, domestic consumption is forecast at 12.34 million tons, 3.7% up from that last season, and exports continued estimated at 600 thousand tons. Thus, ending stocks (July/22) were revised down compared to that reported in August, due to lower production, now forecast at 1.35 million tons. However, it is still higher than the 146.9 thousand tons from July/21.
The USDA released a report in early September estimating the Brazilian wheat output at 7.7 million tons, stable compared to that previously reported and 23.2% higher than that in 2020/21.
IMPORTS – According to Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), in August/21, Brazil imported 594.13 thousand tons of wheat, 11.1% more than that in July and 5.7% up from that in August/20. Of the total imported last month, 90.53% came from Argentina; 5.6%, from the United States; 2%, from Russia; 1.29%, from Canada; 0.5%, from Paraguay; and 0.1%, from Uruguay.