In the offseason, prices end February on the rise in the Brazilian market

Cepea, March 2, 2021 – Prices for wheat grain ended February (offseason) on the rise in the Brazilian market. According to Cepea collaborators, farmers were focused on harvesting the summer crop, majorly soybean crops, and on defining second crops, where wheat fits in. Thus, wheat supply was low in Brazil last month. As regards purchasers, agents from mills continued away from the market in late February, claiming to have high inventories of finished products. In this scenario, despite the valuations, the trading pace was slow.


In February, the average wheat price in the wholesale market of Rio Grande do Sul was 1,445.57 BRL/ton, 7.1% up from the average in January/21 and a staggering 71% up from that in Feb/2020, in nominal terms. In Paraná, the average was 1,490.64 BRL/ton, 5.8% up in the monthly comparison and 53.2% higher in the annual comparison. In São Paulo, the average closed at 1,526.49 BRL/ton, 5.6% up compared to that in January/21 and 51.4% above that from Feb/2020. In Santa Catarina, the average wheat price was 1,504.16 BRL/ton, 5.3% and 63.7% up, respectively, in nominal terms.


According to Cepea collaborators, the increases in the prices paid to wheat farmers are linked to lower inventories and the lower interest of farmers in selling the product, mainly in Paraná. On the other hand, in the wholesale market, higher demand for the wheat from Argentina increased competitiveness in late February, and prices dropped in the some of the regions surveyed by Cepea. However, the strong dollar continued to underpin the import parity. In February, the American currency rose by 3.2% compared to Real, ending the month at 5.581 BRL.


According to Seab/Deral, up to February 25, the volume of wheat sold and/or consumed on farms was at 92.4% of the estimated volume, against 86.3% in January/21 and 82.4% in December/20, confirming the low amount available with farmers. Thus, imports should be higher this semester.


IMPORTS – According to data from Secex, up to the third week of February, Brazil was importing 24.66 thousand tons of wheat per day, on average, against 29.23 thousand tons per day in February 2020, 15.64% down. Import value was at 245.00 USD per ton FOB origin, 20.71% higher than that in the same period last year (203.00 USD/ton).




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