International data bring concern for growers

Brazilian cotton market kept moving at a slow pace during the second fortnight of February. Enough supplied, textile mills were not willing to trade. Growers also retreated, concerned about decreasing international values due to new USDA forecasts for 2009. Data show a reduction in North-American international trades, because of the lower global growth. For cotton, US exports are estimated at 2.5 million tons against 2.96 million in 2008. The economy growth from China, for instance, should be of between 5 and 5.5 percent, the lowest since 1990. For Brazil, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected by USDA to increase only 0.5 percent.

Concerning domestic prices, from January 30th to February 27th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the type 41-4 (delivered in Sao Paulo city, payment in 8 days - the most common commercialization in Brazilian market) dropped 2.4 percent in Real, closing at 1.1525 real or 0.4863 dollar per pound on Feb 27th.

According to the Brazilian Commodity Exchange (BBM), until end of February, 1.39 million tons of the cotton from 2007/08 crop had been already traded, representing 87 percent of the volume projected by the Conab (1.602 million tons). Of the total registered by BBM, 691 thousand tons were directed to the domestic market and 698 thousand tons, to the international one. (Cepea - Brazil)

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