Liquidity is low in January, but prices end the month on the rise in Brazil

Cepea, February 2, 2021 – Wheat prices were firm in the Brazilian market in January, despite the low liquidity. With the offseason and the nearness of the planning for the new season, sellers continued away from the market, expecting prices to rise, since the supply of high-quality wheat is low, favoring valuations in early 2021. As regards wheat processors, some agents were purchasing wheat sporadically, claiming difficulties to pass on the current costs to by-products, flour and bran.

 

In January, the average wheat price in the wholesale market (deals between processors) of Paraná State (PR) was 1,409.30 BRL per ton, 7.3% up from that in December/2020 and a staggering 55% higher than that in Jan/2020, in nominal terms. In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was 1,349.83 BRL/ton, 4.6% up in a month’s time and 67.7% up in the annual comparison. In São Paulo, the average was 1,445.37 BRL/ton, 10.2% up compared to that in December/2020 and 51.1% higher than that in January/2020. In Santa Catarina, the average wheat price was 1,428.46 BRL/ton, 2.5% and 60.9% up, respectively, in nominal terms. In January, the dollar rose by 5.7% compared to Real, ending the month at 5.483 BRL.

 

CROPS – In Paraná, Deral revised up wheat production estimates for 2019/20. Of the cereal harvested, production is forecast at 3.12 million tons, against 3.067 million tons estimated in December. As for the area planted, it is predicted at 1.123 million hectares, against 1.116 million hectares estimated in December.

 

IMPORTS – According to data from Secex, up to the third week of January, Brazil was importing 28.2 thousand tons of wheat per day, on average, slightly lower than the daily average in January 2020 (29.5 thousand tons). Import value is at 238.00 USD/ton FOB origin, 22.4% up from that in the same period last year (194.50 USD/ton).

 

(Cepea-Brazil)

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