Market waits for the 2007/08 crop forecast

Coffee market is focused on the first forecast about the 2007/08 Brazilian coffee crop production, which should be published tomorrow (December 15th) by the National Company for Food Supply (Conab). Some companies estimate a production between 30 and 32 million bags of 60 kilos, volume very inferior to the 41.6 million bags harvested on 2005/06 crop.

These numbers should support futures prices, since 30 million bags are not enough to supply both the domestic and the international demand.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee (type 6, delivered in Sao Paulo city) averaged 137.85 dollars per bag of 60 kilos this Wednesday, up 4 percent over November 30th. For robusta, price also increased even with the larger global supply with harvest activities in Vietnan, the main global producer of this variety. The Index (type 6, in the origin Espírito Santo state) averaged 101.12 dollars per bag on Dec 13th, increase 5 percent in the same period.

The support keeps coming from the lower Brazilian crop production in 2007/08 arabica season due to the bad blooming's development and also to the biannual cycle of the coffee. Moreover, the better demand by importer countries contributed to support the domestic values.


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