Optimism increases with record productivity

Brazilian soybean growers were even more optimistic at the beginning of March. Besides the high prices, the National Company for Food Supply (Conab) data published on Mar 6th show that the productivity should keep favoring the production increase and, as a consequence, resulting in better profitability to growers.

In the current crop (2007/08), the Brazilian productivity should reach 2,835 kilos per hectare, 0.5 percent higher over the 2006/07 crop. It seems to be a small increase, however, the fact is that the productivity of the 2006/07 crop was already a record - 2,822 kilos per hectare. Between the 2000/01 and the 2005/06 crops, the productivity averaged 2,523 kilos per hectare.

The volume produced has increased 2.1 percent (totaling 59.6 million tons) and the planted area, 1.6 percent (to 21 million hectares). The main producer states, Mato Grosso and Paraná, should present higher productivity (of 5.3 and 2.1 percent, in that order); in the Paraná state should reach more than 3 thousand kilos per hectare for the first time.

Even with the higher production, the final stocks are forecasted at 3,083.2 thousand tons, decreasing 24 percent compared to the previous crop. This is a result of a consumption (domestic and international) superior to the production.

Regarding prices, the decreases at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT) and the harvesting enhancement pressed domestic values down. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná state) decreased 6.2 percent in Real from Feb 29th and Mar 14th, closing at 45.94 reals or 26.80 dollars per bag of 60 kilos this Friday. For the product delivered in the Paranaguá port, the ESALQ/BM&F Index dropped 5.2 percent in Real, at 48.53 reals or 28.32 dollars per bag of 60 kilos.

Even with the recent decreases, bases keep positive - restricted global supply and demand. Agents remain waiting for the first data of the 2008/09 crop to be published at the end of March.

According to the latest USDA report about the 2007/08 crop published on Mar 11th, the global production decreased slight 0.1 percent compared to the February projection, totaling 219.85 million tons. The Brazilian production, however, increased to 61 million tons - against 60.5 million in February. (Cepea - Brazil)

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