Cepea, December 1, 2020 – Wheat prices dropped in Paraná (PR) and Rio Grande do Sul (RS) States in late November, influenced by the lack of purchasers in the market. These agents – who are focused on ending the harvesting and, thus, expect new devaluations – were buying only small batches in the second week of the month. Besides, some mills seem to have stocks for the short-term. However, it is worth to mention that, despite the price drops in the major wheat-producing regions in Brazil in the second half of November, average prices continue at high levels.
Last month (until Nov. 20), the average wheat price in the wholesale market (trades between processors) of PR was at 1,424.18 BRL per ton, 11% higher than that in October. In RS, the average was at 1,442.52 BRL/ton, 18.5% up in the monthly comparison and higher than the average in PR. This scenario is unusual, since prices in PR are generally higher than in RS.
Considering the series of Cepea, which began in 2004, prices in RS were only higher than in PR in September and October 2004; September 2015; September and October 2017; and in August and September 2020.
Liquidity has been low in the Brazilian spot market, while anticipated sales have reached 71.8% of the estimated output, according to data from Seab/Deral released on Nov. 24, the highest volume for this period in the last 15 years.
CROPS – The wheat harvesting has ended in Paraná, and with the current weather issues, production estimates were revised down by Seab/Deral to 3.052 million tons, 17% below that initially expected (3.7 million tons). Still, these estimates are 43% higher than production in 2019.
In Rio Grande do Sul, 98% of the state area had been harvested until Nov. 26, according to Emater – activities were favored by the weather. It is worth to mention that, in Passo Fundo and Santa Maria, grains quality is considered excellent.
IMPORTS – According to Cepea collaborators, the dollar depreciation and wheat price drops in the international market made Brazilian purchasers more interested in importing the cereal. According to data from Secex, until the third week of November, Brazil had been importing 15 thousand tons of wheat per day, on average, against 22.3 thousand tons/day in Nov/19. Import value averaged 218.30 USD/ton FOB origin, 2.1% up from that in the same period last year (213.80 USD/ton).