Prices have opposite behaviors among regions

Cepea, December 17, 2019 – Corn prices have registered different trends among regions surveyed by Cepea due to regional conditions of supply and demand. In some locations, quotes have moved up because of retraction of sellers, who expect values to increase more in the coming weeks. On the other hand, the lack of purchasers and the higher interest of sellers in trading part of the product stocked have pressed down quotes.


Between November 29 and December 13, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) rose 1.02%, closing at 48.37 BRL (11.78 USD) per 60-kilo bag on Dec. 13.


ESTIMATES – Data from both the USDA and Conab (National Company for Food Supply) indicate world inventories and production may decrease in the 2019/20 season. Lower inventories are mainly linked to a production decrease in the United States, due to the unfavorable weather during sowing and crops development. The output from Brazil was kept at 101 million tons, and Brazilian corn exports, at 38.5 million tons.


According to the USDA, the world corn production should total 1.1 billion tons, slightly higher than the volume previously reported. World exports should surpass 172.32 million tons.


New data released by Conab on December 10 show that the area in the 2019/20 summer crop should total 4.15 million hectares, 1.2% larger than that in the previous year. Among the main corn-producing regions in Brazil, the highest increases are expected in Rio Grande do Sul and in Goiás, and the sharpest decreases, in Paraná and in São Paulo.


As regards the second crop, data indicate that the area should be the same as that last crop, at 12.87 million hectares. However, with the sowing delay for soybean in central-western Brazil, productivity may be 3.1% lower, and the output may total 70.93 million tons, 3.1% down.


Consumption should increase in the 2019/20 season, totaling 68.13 million tons, while exports should decrease to 34 million tons, almost 6 million tons lower than that in the current crop. Thus, if these estimates are confirmed, ending stocks (in January 2021) should total 10.3 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16. In the current crop (2018/19), exports estimates were kept at 40 million tons.




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