Cepea, March 17, 2021 – Soybean prices swung widely in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of March, influenced by both the dollar fluctuation and the release of supply and demand reports. On March 9, the American currency hit 5.789 BRL, dropping on the following days and closing at 5.645 BRL on March 15. As regards supply and demand, a report released by the USDA pointed to an increase in the world soybean supply.
Besides, the slow harvesting pace in Brazil, sellers’ needs to accomplish contracts (majorly to the international market), logistic issues and the export parity led domestic prices to swing too.
Thus, on March 9, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) hit the highest nominal level in the series of Cepea, closing at 179.30 BRL (30.97 USD) per 60-kilo bag, dropping to 170.84 BRL (30.26 USD)/bag on March 15. Between February 26 and March 15, this Index rose by 2%.
WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND – The report released by the USDA pointed to higher supply in the Brazilian 2020/21 season (134 million tons). The world soybean supply is estimated at 361.8 million tons, 0.2% up from that previously reported and 6.7% above that last crop.
The USDA estimates that 166.9 million tons should be traded between countries in the 2020/21 season, and the Brazilian soybean exports may decrease compared to that in the previous year, while shipments from the United States may grow by 33.8%. China, in turn, should crush 98 million tons of soybean in the season.