Private forecasts point to deficit supply in Florida

Private companies of US published in August the first forecasts for the 2006/07 Florida orange crop production, starting in October. Louis Dreyfus projected 160 million boxes of 40.8 kilos, and Elisabeth Steger, 123 million boxes. The last one was considered quite lower than the expected by the market: 150 to 170 million boxes.

Those are not official forecasts, which should be published by USDA in October 12. Anyway, if they get confirmed, it is an indicative that Florida's orange juice supply should reduce in 2007, keeping lower than the processed volume of the last two years.

If the new Florida crop production really amounts 120 to 160 million boxes, US should import a larger volume from Brazil. Besides, futures for the commodity can go over 2,500 dollars per ton (in average of the year). For Brazilian citrus growers, that should result on a plus of 1.10 dollar per box to be added in the long term contracts settled with processors.


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