Rainfalls have been helping the development of 2009/10 Brazilian coffee crop in the main producer regions. Harvest activities are expected to start in May (normal period), when the grains should have reached the ideal point of maturation.
Concerning trades, domestic and international markets kept moving at a slow pace during the first fortnight of February. At the New York Board of Trade (ICE Futures), arabica contracts for March/09 averaged 112.35 cents of dollar per pound on Feb 13th, down 5.5 percent from Jan 30th.
In Brazil, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica type 6, delivered in Sao Paulo (capital) closed at 264.77 reals or 116.13 dollars per bag of 60 kilos, dropping 3.6 percent in Real compared to Jan 30th. For robusta type 6, in the origin Espirito Santo state, the Index decreased 5.3 percent in Real during the same period, to 220.42 reals or 96.67 dollars per bag of 60 kilos on Feb 16th.
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE - Brazilian government) forecasted the 2009/10 coffee crop (arabica plus robusta) at 39.4 million bags of 60 kilos, a reduction of 15.9 percent compared to the previous season (2008/09), confirming what agents were predicting. The decrease is linked especially to the biennial cycle of the culture. IBGE report is similar to Conab (Brazilian government) one, published in January - between 36.9 and 38.8 million bags.
Concerning the global coffee consumption, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected 130 million bags of 60 kilos in 2009, an increase of 1.6 percent compared to the previous year. This volume corresponds to roughly 8 million bags above the global production. (Cepea - Brazil)