Cepea, December 1, 2020 – Ethanol sales decreased for one more month in November. According to Cepea surveys, the volume of hydrous ethanol sold by ethanol plants in São Paulo State (SP) last month is 33% lower than that in October and 29% down from that in Nov/2019. Thus, in the 2020/21 season (from Apr/20 to Nov/20), the volume of hydrous ethanol marketed has been 29.6% lower than that in the same period last season (2019/20).
As regards prices, in the full weeks of November, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for hydrous ethanol (São Paulo State) averaged 2.0653 BRL per liter, 3.11% up from that in October. As for anhydrous ethanol, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index increased by 3.62% (in the same comparison), to 2.4203 BRL/liter, on average, in November, considering only the spot market. The firm stance of agents from ethanol plants at the end of the crop underpinned ethanol prices for one more month.
DEMAND – Distributors continued stocked up with volumes purchased in October and collected along November. Besides, some purchasers are concerned about the second wave of covid-19, which has already been constraining fuel consumption in European countries, due to social distancing measures. In Brazil, agents are watching for the possible resume of measures to fight covid-19.
Despite the valuations in November, the average of the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for hydrous ethanol in the 2020/21 season is still 13.9% lower than that in the same period last season, in real terms. As regards anhydrous ethanol, the Index has decreased by 13.8%, in the same comparison (values were deflated by the IGP-M).
In the retail market, filling up the tank of flex vehicles with hydrous ethanol or gasoline C has been the same, in terms of prices, in SP, once the average exchange ratio between these fuels hit 70.6% in November (until Nov. 26), according to the monthly survey from ANP (Brazil’s National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels). Ethanol price rises at ethanol plants are being passed onto pumps, justifying the current exchange ratio.