Cepea, August 18, 2020 – Corn prices are on the rise in the Brazilian market, boosted by the low supply in the national spot market. Despite the fast pace of the second crop harvesting, growers are prioritizing the deliveries already scheduled, postponing new deals and expecting prices to rise more. Thus, Brazilian purchasers and exporters end up increasing bidding prices.
On August 14, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) closed at 55.51 BRL (10.22 USD) per 60-kilo bag, a staggering 9.3% higher than that on July 31. The average this month (until August 14) is at 53.40 BRL/bag, 7.5% higher than that in July and the second highest in 2020. At ports, bidding prices are higher too, and deals have been closed at around 56 BRL/bag.
EXPORTS – Brazilian corn exports have been firm this month. According to data from Secex, in the first five working days of August, Brazil exported 2 million tons of corn, with a daily average of 408.47 thousand tons. Shipments are expected to continue high in the coming weeks. Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) estimates Brazil to export 34.5 million tons of the product in the current season (Feb/20 to Jan/21).
As for the national output, Conab forecasts Brazil to harvest 102.14 million tons of corn in the three crops, 2.1% more than that in the previous season and a record. Despite the difficulties in the development of the summer crop and the sowing delay of the second crop, productivity is forecast to be positive.
On its last report, Conab estimated the first 2019/20 crop to total 25.68 million tons, a slight 0.2% up compared to the previous. The second crop is now forecast at 74.9 million tons, 2.4% up, and the third crop, at 1.53 million tons, a staggering 26% up. As for consumption, it is predicted at 68.42 million tons. Ending stocks are forecast at 10.3 million tons, 1.1% higher than that in 2018/19, but 8.7% lower than the average in the last five crops.
CROPS – The harvesting pace was fast in Brazil in the first fortnight of August, favored by the dry weather. In Mato Grosso, according to Imea, 98.48% of the state area had been harvested until August 15. In Paraná, until August 10, 51% of the area had been harvested. On the other hand, in Mato Grosso do Sul, activities are late and, until August 10, the harvesting had reached 20.5% of the area, much less than that in the previous crop.