Trades are limited; production may hit a record

Cepea, April 16, 2021 – Decreases of both international prices and dollar rates, along with limited quota to export soybean, limited domestic trades in early April. Moreover, roughly 70% of the 2020/21 crop had already been traded, and, therefore, producers were unwilling to trade large batches in the short-term. Local purchasers, in turn, were focused on the possible record production in Brazil.

 

On April 8, Conab released a report indicating a national record production of 135.54 million tons, 0.3% above the previous report and an increase of 8.2% compared to the season before. Both area and productivity were adjusted positively, at 38.46 million hectares and 3.5230 kilos per hectare, due to rains in the first two months this year.

 

Conab says that 79.1% of the area had been harvested in Brazil up to April 3. The excess of humidity in Mato Grosso affected productivity, and, thus, Imea indicates a 2.17% decrease in productivity in the state compared to the 2019/20 crop. In the South and Southeast Brazil, on the other hand, soybean growers say the productivity increased in relation to previous seasons, which were affected by the dry weather.

 

Conab estimates the soybean consumption in Brazil at 50.44 million tons, due to the forecast of higher soybean meal consumption. Exports, on the other hand, were forecast to reduce 0.58% compared to the previous report, at 85.6 million tons.

 

EXPORTS – In March, Brazil shipped 13.49 million tons of soybean (a record considering the months of March), more than five times the volume exported in February and 24.3% higher in relation to March/20, according to Secex.

 

As for soybean meal, shipments totaled 1.23 million tons in March, upping 18.5% compared to the month before, but a decrease of 18.72% in relation to one year ago. Soybean oil exports amounted 102.28 thousand tons, 45.53% up in a month, but 0.13% down compared to March/20.

 

PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) moved up 1.41% between March 31 and April 15, to 175.74 BRL per 60-kilo bag on April 15. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná increased 1.78% in the same period, to 169.40 BRL/bag.

 

(Cepea-Brazil)

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