Weather influences, and quotes follow opposite trends among Brazilian regions

Cepea, December 1, 2020 – Liquidity was low in the Brazilian corn market in November. With the cereal at high price levels, purchasers only bought small batches.


As regards prices, opposite trends were observed among the regions surveyed by Cepea. In southern Brazil, rainfall was sporadic during the month, concerning farmers. Thus, corn growers in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina States limited supply, leading consumers to purchase the product from Mato Grosso do Sul. This context underpinned prices in these states.


In Paraná, farmers were concerned about low rainfall and crops development, staying away from the market. However, the dollar depreciation against Real and the weak demand for corn at Brazilian ports constrained valuations in some regions. In this scenario, prices followed opposite trends within the state.


On the other hand, in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso, precipitation in late November made agents optimistic about the summer crop, and, thus, supply increased slightly, while quotes dropped. Thus, after rising for consecutive weeks and setting a real record in late October, the ESALQ/BM&FBovestpa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) decreased by 4.37% between Oct. 30 and Nov. 30, closing at 78.31 BRL (14.63 USD) per 60-kilo bag on Nov. 30.


CROPS – Agents were focused on crops development, primarily in southern Brazil, where rainfall was low in November. In Rio Grande do Sul, the dry weather was hampering plants development. Until the end of the month, 83% of the crops had been sown, according to Emater/RS. In Santa Catarina, sowing had totaled 96% until Nov. 22, according to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply).


In Paraná, sowing has ended, according to Deral/Seab. Until the end of November, 76% of the crops sown were in good conditions, 20%, in average conditions, and 4%, in bad conditions. Deral has reported that the summer crop is estimated at 3.6 million tons, 1.1% up from the 2019/20 season. Lower area this season was offset by higher productivity.


In São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Goiás, rains improved soil conditions in late November, and activities reached 80%, 80% and 65% of the areas, respectively, according to Conab.




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