With dollar appreciation, liquidity increases in BR; rains hearten farmers in PR

Cepea, September 17th, 2021 – Although there were holidays in the United States and in Brazil in the first week of September, liquidity resumed increasing in Brazil, majorly at ports. The US dollar appreciation against the Real led sellers to the national market and farmers to sell batches, mainly from the 2020/21 crop. In that scenario, soybean prices reacted in Brazil.


On Sept. 9, the export premium for soybean in Brazil hit the highest level since October 2018 (considering first contracts). This increase offset international decreases and pushed up domestic values.


Between August 31 and September 15, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná rose by 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively, to 175.24 BRL (33.43 USD)/60-kilo bag and 171.54 BRL (32.72 USD)/60-kilo bag on Sept. 15. The US dollar increased by 1.1%, to 5.242 BRL on September 15.


EXPORTS – In August, Brazil exported 8.69 million tons of soybean, 15.26% down from that in July, but 11.28% higher than the volume shipped a year before, according to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat). The major destination for the national product was China, which received 4.51 million tons of Brazilian soybean last month, 2.7% down from the volume in July, but the highest for a month of August since 2018. South Korea was the second major destination for the national soybean last month, importing 1.39 million tons, the highest volume in more than a year’s time. This year, Brazil has exported 70.03 million tons of soybean, less than the 75.17 million tons exported in the same period last year, according to Secex.


Until the end of the year, Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) estimates Brazil may export 83.61 million tons of soybean, down from the 87.35 million tons shipped in 2020. Domestic consumption is forecast at 50 million tons, and ending stocks, at 7.52 million tons.


2021/22 SEASON – With the nearness of sowing the 2021/22 soybean crop in the major-producing regions in Brazil, farmers are keeping an eye on the weather forecast. It rained in southern, southeastern and central-western Brazil in the first week of September, which may allow activities to begin in the areas where the host-free period ended.


According to Deral/Seab, the area for the first soybean crop in the 2021/22 season in Paraná may total 5.6 million hectares, and the output, 20.9 million tons (+6% compared to that in the previous season).


In Mato Grosso, Imea (Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics) estimates the state area with soybean to total 10.84 million hectares, 3.59% up from that in the previous season. Yield is expected at 57.52 bags per hectare, 0.17% up from that last season, and the output is forecast at 37.41 million tons.


According to the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), Brazil is expected to harvest a record volume of soybean in the 2021/22 season, of 133.8 million tons, 10.1% up from that in the 2020/21 season.





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